Ivan Shishkin, At the Edge of the Pine Forest

The Monty Hall Paradox

Reviewed

Consider the following game.
There are 33 doors and a prize is hidden at random behind one of them. A contestant chooses a door, say door 11 for example, but does not open it. Let DiD_i be the event "the prize is behind door ii", for i=1,2,3i = 1,2,3.

1. What is the probability P(Di)P(D_i) of the event DiD_{i} for i=1,2,3i = 1,2,3?

2. The host, who knows where the prize is, opens one of the 2 doors not chosen by the contestant and behind which the prize is not located. Let A2A_2 be the event "the host opens door 2" and A3A_3 the event "the host opens door 3". Calculate the probabilities

P(A2D1),  P(A2D2),  P(A2D3),  P(A3D1),  P(A3D2),  P(A3D3).P(A_2 \mid D_1), \; P(A_2 \mid D_2), \; P(A_2 \mid D_3), \; P(A_3 \mid D_1), \; P(A_3 \mid D_2), \; P(A_3 \mid D_3).

3. Deduce P(D1A2)P(D_1 \mid A_2) and P(D3A2)P(D_3 \mid A_2). Similarly, what are P(D1A3)P(D_1 \mid A_3) and P(D2A3)P(D_2 \mid A_3)?

Solutions

0