Ivan Shishkin, Rye (1878)

Problems/Probability and statisticsReviewed

The best apartment

by Mineral·translated by Ancient Tree·
27
Difficulty scaleÉchelle de difficulté

This score reflects both the level of the required concepts and the difficulty of the solution.Ce score tient compte à la fois du niveau des notions nécessaires et de la difficulté de la résolution.

  1. 110First steps / middle schoolPremiers pas / collège
  2. 1125Beginner / high schoolDébutant / lycée
  3. 2650Intermediate / undergraduateIntermédiaire / licence
  4. 5170Advanced / graduateAvancé / master
  5. 7190Expert / specializedExpert / spécialisé
  6. 91100Research levelNiveau recherche
These levels are approximate guides.Ces niveaux sont des repères approximatifs.
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This translation may be outdated. Its source text has changed since revision 3060.

You are going to visit n=20n=20 apartments, one after another. Each apartment is assigned a score drawn uniformly from [0,1][0,1], independently of the others.

After each visit, you have two choices: take it (and the search ends there) or move on to the next one. An apartment you reject is gone for good, and if you reject the first 1919, you are required to take the last one.

Your goal is to make the score of the apartment you choose as high as possible, on average.

You visit the first apartment. Its score is 0.90.9. Do you take it?

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Solution by MineralFR

Discussions1 useful vote

On raisonne à rebours. Notons VkV_k la note espérée obtenue en jouant de
façon optimale lorsqu’il reste kk appartements à visiter (celui qu’on a
sous les yeux compris).

Cas intitial : S’il n’en reste qu’un, on est forcé de le
prendre :
V1=01xdx=12.V_1 = \int_0^1 x\,dx = \tfrac12.

Récurrence. Quand il reste kk appartements, on observe la
note courante xx : la garder rapporte xx, la refuser rapporte Vk1V_{k-1} en
moyenne. On garde donc si et seulement si xVk1x \ge V_{k-1} : le seuil
d’acceptation est exactement Vk1V_{k-1}. La note espérée est la moyenne sur
xU[0,1]x \sim \mathcal{U}[0,1] du meilleur des deux choix :
Vk=01max(x,Vk1)dx=1+Vk122.V_k = \int_0^1 \max(x, V_{k-1})\,dx = \frac{1 + V_{k-1}^2}{2}.

Calcul de la suite : En itérant depuis V1=12V_1 = \tfrac12 :
V1=0,5,V2=0,625,V30,695,,V180,913,V190,916.V_1 = 0{,}5,\quad V_2 = 0{,}625,\quad V_3 \approx 0{,}695,\quad \dots,\quad V_{18} \approx 0{,}913,\quad V_{19} \approx 0{,}916.

Conclusion. Au premier appartement, il reste 2020 visites,
donc le seuil vaut V190,916V_{19} \approx 0{,}916. Comme 0,9<0,9160{,}9 < 0{,}916, on
refuse : la note est bonne dans l’absolu, mais il reste bien trop de
tirages devant soi pour se contenter de 0,90{,}9. En jouant ainsi jusqu’au
bout, on obtient en moyenne V200,92V_{20} \approx 0{,}92.

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